May 2023 - Gas price carnage, new stars on the floor
Date Posted:3 May 2023
“However beautiful the strategy, you should occasionally look at the results." Winston Churchill
May 2023
Welcome to May, it’s been a few months and thank you to our lovely subscribers who reached out during our newsletter hiatus.
All has been well at our end, a particularly busy period behind the scenes working on platform projects. Our digital programs still have quite a few more months to run yet so we will be sure to share exciting updates in future newsletters.
Nothing has really changed in the local or global coffee industry over the last couple of months other than more of the same conditions with raw coffee prices remaining at or near historic highs. Even minor drops don’t even register with 6 months of buffer in the supply chain. Of particular concerns are Kenya and Ethiopia with quality lots commanding a premium that’s almost double the market.
Ironically, there is now a lot of talk and speculation of global coffee prices rising yet again – not unlike the crazy real estate prices in most capital cities, defying all economic logic and common sense.
With raw coffee there is always a mix of strange, bizarre and fictional narratives that play out around chronically short of supply unable to meet global demands, albeit consumption only increases around 4% per annum.
One important lesson the pandemic has taught all of us is to be skeptical of supply shortages. Often the differences between reality and make-believe comes down to supply chain extortion from sellers deliberately holding back to protect elevated prices. Think new cars, plant and equipment, building materials, etc. A story similar to Australian capital city real estate - if you want something, be prepared to pay up or miss out.
Coffee is particularly prone to the most elastic and rubbery supply and demand numbers of any industry. Nobody really knows what’s sitting in supply chains as inventory remains basically hidden (stockpiled or not reported). Naturally, deficits keep the pressure under prices and the systemic under-reporting feeds a perfectly unbalanced and inaccurate demand loop.
Despite challenging trade scenarios there are still plenty of fresh, new and interesting coffees arriving regularly into our warehouse. We have picked out a few examples for the "Float our Boat" segment offering a bit of interesting or difference in the cup.
The recent doubling of natural gas pricing in February for industrial users like coffee brands has hit us and the entire industry hard. It certainly wasn't the 30% home owners copped, but a big, ugly 100%. Not 50 or 75 or even 91.3%……but bang on 100%. Almost like the gas supplier’s pricing analyst was absent and someone stuck a wet finger into the air and went “nah, just double it, she’ll be right mate, they can’t do anything to stop us, we have ‘em by the goolies”.
The government’s much-lauded yet short-sighted and tragically incompetent energy policies exclude industrial gas customers from price cap protection. Energy suppliers have spent the last 5 years ramping up extreme levels of profit-taking by extorting Australian manufacturers. All the while a political football was being kicked around by our elected members distracted by thoughts of how voters might feel about rising energy costs, blind and clueless to the damage inflicted upon the economy’s engine room, industry.
Gas companies have held industrial users to ransom over many years with price gouging courtesy of a dumb policy that created a concentrated monopoly in gas distribution. Hard to imagine industrial gas prices tripling in the space of 5 years – especially when it literally comes from our own backyard.
Industrial tariffs are way out of comparable kilter to residential supply pricing. Same gas, same distribution networks, but bonkers tariffs for industrial users forced to pay double. It’s a wonder smarty pants economists can’t seem to join the dots between industrial gas extortion and consumers forced to pay higher prices for all types of goods. The lazy excuse of blaming everything on higher interest rates, disruption from past lockdowns and blasé inflation is totally missing the obvious point that gas still plays a major role in many processes for food and materials.
So let's shift to the brighter side.
Our range of filter-roast coffees have expanded. These lighter roast styles are crafted on a special high precision platform and suitable for use in most modern alternative brewing devices. Filter style roasts will also appeal to espresso enthusiasts seeking a lighter roasted intensity of fruit-driven extractions. The Ethiopian in particular is a stellar lot of fruit medley and boysenberry.
As always, our blends continue to be extensively re-engineering and optimized for staging in new harvest lots. Blends change at least once every 3 months and right now we think our blends are singing sweet notes in the cup - particularly our eponymous Suuweet. If it wasn’t obvious already, our blends offer superior value as we must use the exact same single origins sold in our store for making blends.
Why are blends cheaper ? bugged if I know. There really is no reason other than history and industry practice. Blends are a lot more labour intensive with additional effort to batching up a 3, 4 or 5 bean blend - hard work for less reward, doesn't make a lot of sense but let's not rock the boat.
Secret Label.
So it looks like a Masterchef mystery box challenge, but it's not.
This month we have again tried to push boundaries with elegant fruit and chocolate complexity after experiencing a bit of a "Heston" moment in the lab. And sorry, no you won't be able to taste all of the ingredients appearing in the picture above, but it serves a purpose to highlight there is a fair bit of complexity going on with this Secret Label.
A rich and soft texture from salted caramel and toffee has sweetness from delicate rose tea and strawberry sitting on top of delicious milk chocolate.
This interesting mix of texture and fruit works well and keeps the faith of our Secret Label theme to do coffee things a bit differently.
We think it's a tremendous coffee that represents exceptional value considering the pedigree of ingredients that normally sell for up to $10 a kilo extra.
April's Secret Label sold in truck loads, seemingly becoming more and more popular as the month went on as customers returned for seconds or thirds. We hope there is enough to last the month.
Don’t miss out or end up disappointed.
Grab it here - mycuppa Secret Label
What's floating our boat right now
Ethiopia Filter Roast
An exceptional Grade 1 Yirgacheffe natural offering fruit medley and boysenberry in the cup.
Roasted lighter, this style of coffee is best suited for alternative brewing methods or espresso enthusiasts chasing that fruit-driven god shot. In case you have never tried a filter roast before, it's important to point out that filter style roasts being lighter are not always recommended for espresso beverages where milk or dairy alternatives are added due to less intensity of the roasted coffee body.
Espresso roast Burundi
As one of the first specialty coffee roasters in Australia to offer Burundi back in 2010, this lot is remarkably different to previous seasons. Still from the famous Akawa Project featuring notes of apricot jam, tamarind, dates and caramel.
PNG Highlands
Our normal supply of the amazing PNG Highlands fell a bit short this season, running out just after Xmas. In place is a coffee that really took us by surprise with red currant, dark chocolate, cola and maple syrup.
Ethiopia Bensa and Harrar
Both have changed in the last week and remain in transition for a few more weeks as we stage in the new lots.
The new Bensa has a nice fruit kick with delicious caramel and blue berries.
Harrar is always an unpredictable beast or perhaps a kinder surprise depending upon the way you look at things. Harrar varies considerably from season to season. We went 5 years without any Harrar due to an extended period of low supply (read no supply) coupled with poor cup quality. Last season (current) we were blessed with outstanding vibrant red fruit and raspberry zest. This lot still has the red fruit theme, although there is more rose tea and strawberry – it’s softer and more refined without the soaring citrus acidity.
El Salvador
A personal fave. This tasty lot gives up plenty of delicious mandarin, chocolate and almond butter with a syrupy toffee finish that runs forever.