Coffee prices have risen sharply over the last few years, but the biggest change inside the coffee industry is not always visible on a price tag.
It is what happens to quality when everybody in the supply chain is under pressure.
For many years, Australian coffee buyers could choose from a broad range of green coffees at different quality levels and price points. Importers carried deep inventories, roasters had multiple options, and there was usually enough supply to walk away from a coffee that did not taste good enough.
When supply becomes tight and raw coffee prices rise dramatically, that balance changes.
Coffee is still available.
The problem is that the good coffee becomes more expensive, harder to secure and easier to sell elsewhere.
That creates a very different market.
Coffee Became a Seller's Market
Historically, coffee buyers had considerable influence over quality.
If a lot did not meet expectations, an importer or roaster could reject it and choose something else.
When global availability tightens, producers and exporters are in a much stronger position.
They know the coffee will probably sell.
That does not mean farmers suddenly stop caring about quality, but it does change the commercial equation. When demand is strong enough, coffees that might once have struggled to attract Australian buyers can find a market.
For roasters, the question can shift from:
“Is this the best coffee available?”
to:
“Can we secure enough coffee at a price that still makes commercial sense?”
That is a significant change.
Higher Prices Do Not Automatically Mean Better Coffee
One of the strange things about commodity markets is that price and quality do not always move together.
A coffee can become substantially more expensive simply because supply is limited.
That does not mean the coffee suddenly tastes better.
During tight market conditions, importers also face their own risks.
They may be buying coffee months before it reaches Australia, often without knowing what the market price will be when they eventually sell it.
If they buy too aggressively at the top of the market and prices later fall, they can be left holding expensive inventory that customers no longer want to pay for.
That naturally encourages more cautious buying.
In some cases, it can also mean bringing in more affordable grades rather than carrying expensive premium lots that may take months to sell.
Why Australia's Coffee Selection Can Become Narrower
Australia is a relatively small coffee market compared with the largest consuming nations.
When international supply becomes difficult, we do not always receive the same range of coffees that were previously available.
Importers may carry less spot inventory.
More coffee may be pre-sold before it arrives.
Certain origins may disappear temporarily.
And coffees that were once readily available can suddenly become difficult to replace.
For roasters, that means purchasing decisions become more complex.
You may still find coffee from a particular country, but the exact quality, region, processing style or flavour profile you previously relied on may no longer be available.
Is Café Coffee Really Getting Worse?
This is where things become more complicated.
There are still plenty of excellent cafés serving excellent coffee.
There are also many excellent Australian roasters continuing to buy and roast high-quality coffee.
But rising costs are putting enormous pressure on hospitality.
Rent, wages, electricity, equipment, milk, packaging and coffee itself have all become more expensive.
A café that cannot easily increase the price of a flat white has to absorb those costs somewhere.
For some venues, coffee becomes one of the few variables they can change.
That may mean moving to a less expensive blend.
Using cheaper green coffee.
Reducing coffee dose.
Changing suppliers.
Or simply choosing a product that meets the minimum acceptable requirement rather than chasing the best cup possible.
None of these decisions happen in isolation.
They are survival decisions.
Why Café Coffee Prices Are Rising
Australia has traditionally had relatively competitive café coffee pricing.
Consumers are accustomed to coffee being affordable, and café owners know that even a small increase can create resistance from regular customers.
But the economics of making coffee have changed.
The coffee itself costs more.
Labour costs more.
Milk costs more.
Rent costs more.
Energy costs more.
Equipment costs more.
At some point, a café either raises prices, lowers costs or accepts a smaller margin.
Usually, some combination of all three occurs.
That is why discussions around $6, $7 or even more expensive café coffee have become increasingly common.
The raw coffee component is only one part of that equation, but it is now a much larger part than it used to be.
Why Taste Can Become Secondary During a Supply Crisis
One of the biggest changes we have noticed is how coffee is discussed during purchasing.
Years ago, conversations with suppliers regularly centred around flavour, cup quality, processing and suitability.
During periods of extreme shortage, conversations increasingly start with:
“This is what we have available.”
That is a very different buying environment.
When availability becomes the priority, taste can slip further down the list.
This is not necessarily because suppliers or roasters suddenly stop caring.
It is because the market gives them fewer options.
Great Coffee Has Not Disappeared
The important point is that great coffee is still being grown.
Exceptional producers still exist.
Outstanding coffees are still being processed, exported, imported and roasted.
They are simply harder to secure and more expensive to buy.
That means good roasters have to work harder.
More samples need to be tasted.
More alternatives need to be considered.
More coffees may be rejected.
And sometimes the correct decision is simply not to offer a particular origin until something suitable becomes available.
That can be frustrating for customers who expect their favourite coffee to remain available all year.
But we would rather display Sold Out than quietly replace a great coffee with something that does not meet our standard.
What This Means at myCuppa
At myCuppa, our approach has not changed.
We still buy coffee based on how it performs in the cup.
What has changed is the amount of effort required to maintain that standard.
Green coffee is considerably more expensive than it was only a few years ago.
Some origins are more difficult to secure.
Some coffees simply do not offer enough quality for the price being asked.
And occasionally a long-standing coffee disappears because we cannot find a replacement we are comfortable selling.
That is not a supply-chain failure.
It is quality control.
We would rather wait for the right coffee than buy something simply because it has the correct country name printed on the bag.
Why Buying Better Coffee Matters More During Difficult Markets
When the market is easy, almost everybody can buy reasonably good coffee.
When the market becomes difficult, sourcing discipline becomes much more important.
The difference between an experienced buyer and somebody purchasing purely on price becomes more obvious.
Storage matters more.
Freshness matters more.
Roasting consistency matters more.
And tasting every incoming coffee matters more.
It is during difficult markets that the fundamentals become most important.
Frequently Asked Questions
Why does coffee quality sometimes fall when green coffee prices rise?
When supply is tight and prices are high, buyers have fewer options. Coffees that might previously have been rejected can still find buyers because availability becomes more important. Importers and roasters may also choose less expensive lots to manage rising costs.
Does expensive green coffee always taste better?
No. Coffee prices are influenced by supply, demand, weather, futures markets, origin premiums and logistics as well as cup quality. A coffee can become substantially more expensive without becoming better tasting.
Why do some coffee origins suddenly become unavailable?
Coffee is seasonal and agricultural. Poor harvests, logistics problems, strong international demand and limited importer inventory can all reduce availability. Sometimes a particular quality level disappears even though coffee from the same country is still technically available.
Why don't roasters simply buy the same coffee every year?
Every harvest is different. Weather, processing, availability and market conditions change constantly. Even coffee from the same farm can taste different from one season to the next, and sometimes the previous lot cannot be replaced at all.
Are cafés using cheaper coffee because costs are rising?
Some may be. Hospitality businesses face rising costs across rent, wages, milk, energy and ingredients. When menu prices cannot rise enough to cover those increases, businesses may look for cheaper inputs, including coffee. That does not apply to every café, but it is one of the pressures affecting the market.
Is good coffee becoming impossible to find?
No. Excellent coffee is still available, but it can be harder and more expensive to source during tight market conditions. The challenge for roasters is finding coffees that deliver both quality and sustainable value.
Why would myCuppa leave a coffee out of stock instead of replacing it?
If we cannot find a replacement that meets our quality expectations, we would rather wait than substitute something inferior simply to keep a product available. A familiar origin name is not enough if the coffee itself does not perform in the cup.
What should customers look for when buying coffee during high-price periods?
Look beyond price alone. Fresh roasting, good green coffee sourcing, proper storage, consistency and transparency all matter. In difficult markets, those fundamentals become even more important because quality differences between coffees can become wider.
