We’re often asked why coffee prices behave like the stock market. This month, the global stage is particularly busy with two major forces pulling in opposite directions.
Some Good News: Brazil’s Bumper Forecast
For the first time in a few years, there’s some genuine "downward" pressure on global Arabica prices, albeit just for future contracts. This month, Brazil’s official crop agency, Conab, announced a record-breaking forecast for the 2026 harvest—projecting a massive 66.2 million bags (a 17% increase year-on-year).
What this means for you: After the price spikes of 2024 and 2025, we are finally seeing the market showing some signs of a "correction." Arabica futures have hit their lowest levels since August, which is a breath of fresh air for specialty roasters like us. It allows us to keep your daily brew affordable while the rest of the cost-of-living keeps climbing.
But we caution. Supply chains are typically around 6 to 9 months behind in pricing. This is due to the significant inventory stored across the supply chain, exporters, importers, roasters, etc.
Not without challenges: "Coffee-Harming" Heat
While the volume of beans is up, the environment is getting tougher. A major report released this week (February 2026) by Climate Central shows that major growing regions in Brazil, Vietnam, and Ethiopia are now enduring 57 extra days of extreme heat per year compared to historical averages.
Why it matters: Heat stress above 30°C makes coffee plants struggle. It leads to smaller, less dense beans and can affect the clarity of the flavor profile. At mycuppa, we are intensifying our cupping and quality control to ensure that even as the world gets warmer, the quality in your cup remains crisp and vibrant.
Your February "Reset" Checklist
Before you hit the "Pay Now" button, here’s a quick 3-point check to make sure your home setup is ready for autumn:
- Check the Hopper: Is it sitting in direct sunlight? Humidity and heat will age your beans 3x faster. Move it to a cool, dark spot.
- The "4-Second Purge": If you didn't see our tip above, remember to run your grinder for 4 seconds first thing in the morning to clear out the "clumpy" humidity-affected retained grounds.
- Stock Up Early: The "Back to School" rush is real. Don't wait until you're tapping the bottom of the bag!
Critical February "Grind Gap": Why your shots are acting up
Ever noticed that your perfect 27-second extraction yesterday is suddenly a watery mess today—or worse, choking your machine?
In February, we deal with the peak of Australian humidity. While you’re feeling the stickiness, your coffee beans are feeling it more. Roasted coffee is hygroscopic, meaning it acts like a sponge for moisture in the air.
What’s happening inside your hopper?
When the humidity spikes, the coffee oils and the moisture in the air create more friction. This usually causes the coffee to "clump" or grind a bit more coarsely than usual, leading to channelling or inconsistent flow rates. Conversely, on those rare dry, crisp mornings, the beans can become more brittle, shattering into "fines" that can plug your filter basket.
The 4-Second Rule
If you haven't touched your grinder settings since January, your coffee is likely under-performing. To get that "Post-Summer Reset" back on track, try these two quick fixes:
- Purge the "Stale" Grounds: Before your first coffee of the day, run the grinder for 4 seconds and discard those grounds. They’ve been sitting in the chute absorbing moisture all night.
- Micro-Adjustments: If your shot is running too fast (sour/thin), move your collar finer by the smallest possible increment. If it’s dripping slowly (bitter/burnt), go a touch coarser.
The Goal: We’re looking for that "warm honey" pour. If your extraction isn't hitting that sweet spot, don't blame the bean—check the air!
Our 3 PM Promise
Just a reminder for the busy weeks ahead: our warehouse team is on the floor roasting and packing right up until the buzzer. Place your order by 3 PM (AEDT) and we’ll have it roasted and dispatched the very same day.
Happy Brewing,
mycuppa Team
Frequently Asked Questions
Why are coffee prices starting to ease in 2026?
One reason is improved expectations for the Brazilian coffee harvest. A larger crop increases the prospect of better global supply, which can place downward pressure on Arabica futures prices. However, movements in futures markets do not immediately translate into cheaper roasted coffee because existing inventory takes months to move through exporters, importers and roasters.
If raw coffee prices fall, why don't retail coffee prices fall immediately?
Coffee supply chains operate with significant delays. Importers and roasters may already be holding coffee purchased months earlier at higher prices, while new lower-priced crops may not arrive for another six to nine months. Freight, exchange rates, labour and other costs also influence the final retail price.
How does extreme heat affect coffee production?
Coffee plants are sensitive to prolonged heat stress. Excessively high temperatures can affect flowering, fruit development and bean density, potentially reducing both yield and quality. For roasters, that can mean greater variation between crops and more careful tasting and quality control when selecting new-season coffees.
Why does my espresso run differently on humid days?
Roasted coffee responds to the surrounding environment. Higher humidity can change the way beans and ground coffee behave inside the grinder, influencing grind consistency, clumping and extraction speed. This is why a grinder setting that worked perfectly yesterday may need a small adjustment today.
Should I adjust my grinder when the weather changes?
Yes, small adjustments are normal. If your espresso suddenly runs too quickly and tastes thin or sour, try moving slightly finer. If it runs very slowly and tastes heavy or bitter, move slightly coarser. Make very small changes and judge the result by both flow and taste.
Why should I purge my grinder before the first coffee of the day?
A small amount of ground coffee can remain inside the grinder chute after use. Overnight, those retained grounds can lose freshness and absorb moisture from the surrounding air. Purging a small amount before the first coffee helps ensure that the grounds entering your next dose are fresh and more consistent.
What is the best way to store coffee during hot or humid weather?
Keep coffee sealed in its original bag or another suitable airtight container, away from direct sunlight, heat and moisture. Avoid leaving beans in a hopper exposed to warm conditions for long periods if you are not going to use them quickly. A cool, dry cupboard is generally a better storage location.
Here are some recommended reading
The 45-Day Freshness Rule: Why Your Palate is the Best Judge
Why You Need to Keep Adjusting Your Grinder
How to Store Coffee: Keep Your Beans Fresh Longer
