Market Watch: The 2026 "Price Correction" & The Climate Crunch

We’re often asked why coffee prices behave like the stock market. This month, the global stage is particularly busy with two major forces pulling in opposite directions.

Some Good News: Brazil’s Bumper Forecast

For the first time in a few years, there’s some genuine "downward" pressure on global Arabica prices, albeit just for future contracts. This month, Brazil’s official crop agency, Conab, announced a record-breaking forecast for the 2026 harvest—projecting a massive 66.2 million bags (a 17% increase year-on-year).

What this means for you: After the price spikes of 2024 and 2025, we are finally seeing the market showing some signs of a "correction." Arabica futures have hit their lowest levels since August, which is a breath of fresh air for specialty roasters like us. It allows us to keep your daily brew affordable while the rest of the cost-of-living keeps climbing.

But we caution. Supply chains are typically around 6 to 9 months behind in pricing. This is due to the significant inventory stored across the supply chain, exporters, importers, roasters, etc.

Not without challenges: "Coffee-Harming" Heat

While the volume of beans is up, the environment is getting tougher. A major report released this week (February 2026) by Climate Central shows that major growing regions in Brazil, Vietnam, and Ethiopia are now enduring 57 extra days of extreme heat per year compared to historical averages.

Why it matters: Heat stress above 30°C makes coffee plants struggle. It leads to smaller, less dense beans and can affect the clarity of the flavor profile. At mycuppa, we are intensifying our cupping and quality control to ensure that even as the world gets warmer, the quality in your cup remains crisp and vibrant.

Your February "Reset" Checklist

Before you hit the "Pay Now" button, here’s a quick 3-point check to make sure your home setup is ready for autumn:

Check the Hopper: Is it sitting in direct sunlight? Humidity and heat will age your beans 3x faster. Move it to a cool, dark spot.
The "4-Second Purge": If you didn't see our tip above, remember to run your grinder for 4 seconds first thing in the morning to clear out the "clumpy" humidity-affected retained grounds.
Stock Up Early: The "Back to School" rush is real. Don't wait until you're tapping the bottom of the bag!

Critical February "Grind Gap": Why your shots are acting up

Ever noticed that your perfect 27-second extraction yesterday is suddenly a watery mess today—or worse, choking your machine?

In February, we deal with the peak of Australian humidity. While you’re feeling the stickiness, your coffee beans are feeling it more. Roasted coffee is hygroscopic, meaning it acts like a sponge for moisture in the air.

What’s happening inside your hopper?

When the humidity spikes, the coffee oils and the moisture in the air create more friction. This usually causes the coffee to "clump" or grind a bit more coarsely than usual, leading to channelling or inconsistent flow rates. Conversely, on those rare dry, crisp mornings, the beans can become more brittle, shattering into "fines" that can plug your filter basket.

The 4-Second Rule

If you haven't touched your grinder settings since January, your coffee is likely under-performing. To get that "Post-Summer Reset" back on track, try these two quick fixes:

Purge the "Stale" Grounds: Before your first coffee of the day, run the grinder for 4 seconds and discard those grounds. They’ve been sitting in the chute absorbing moisture all night.
Micro-Adjustments: If your shot is running too fast (sour/thin), move your collar finer by the smallest possible increment. If it’s dripping slowly (bitter/burnt), go a touch coarser.

The Goal: We’re looking for that "warm honey" pour. If your extraction isn't hitting that sweet spot, don't blame the bean—check the air!

Our 3 PM Promise

Just a reminder for the busy weeks ahead: our warehouse team is on the floor roasting and packing right up until the buzzer. Place your order by 3 PM (AEDT) and we’ll have it roasted and dispatched the very same day.

Happy Brewing,

mycuppa Team

Here are some recommended reading

The 45-Day Freshness Rule: Why Your Palate is the Best Judge